IMF confirms Ukrainian economists forecast – economist Borys Kushnyruk

12:05, 12 October 2018
Economy
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REUTERS

The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund, published on October 9, 2018 on the site imf.org, predicts Ukraine's GDP in 2018-2019 will amount to $126 and $133 billion, respectively. The estimate with a deviation of 3% coincides with the forecast presented by Ukrainian economists from the IMF group Ukraine (Independent Group for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting) in December 2016. At the time, the IMF assumed Ukraine's economy would be able to reach $130 billion only by the year 2021, that is, two years later than the Kyiv-based independent research group had predicted. 

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (2016 October, 2018 October), IMF group Ukraine forecasts

In 2016, most of the forecasts regarding the recovery of the Ukrainian economy were rather pessimistic. Commodity markets only slowed down the drop and there was not yet firm confidence in how the prices of grain and metals would move further. There was no certainty that the government would not “put pressure” on the National Bank of Ukraine and force it to issue hryvnia to cover its expenses. Under this scenario, we would have lost only the achieved exchange rate stability and the IMF could have halted cooperation. On the other hand, the few investors who estimated future growth rates of our economy more positively than the IMF received decent remuneration in the form of annual returns above 15-17% in foreign currency. The increase in the portfolio of Ukrainian government bonds by non-residents and subjects of the Ukrainian economy, and projects from the real sector or the same real estate grew even faster," economist Borys Kushnyruk said. 

It should be noted that IMF group Ukraine economist MykhailoKukhar earlier explained what factors would account for the economy's 20.5% growth in 2017.

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