Ukraine can phase-out fossil, nuclear by 2050 – research

12:40, 15 November 2017
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Ukraine and Belarus have necessary technical potential and economic reasoning to implement energy transition and increase the share of "green" energy in the Final Energy Supply to 91% and 81% by 2050 correspondingly, as announced during the press-conference on November 14, 2017 in Bonn, Germany in the framework of the COP 23, Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).


Modeling results were prepared by the Institute for Economic and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in close cooperation with civil society organizations, public authorities, specialized in renewables, business associations, and independent experts and with the support of the Heinrich Boell Foundation in Ukraine.

Results show that in case of the implementation of the ambitious Revolutionary Scenario involving a significant reduction in energy consumption and intensive development of renewable energy sources [RES], Final Energy Consumption in Ukraine will decrease by 27% in 2050, and the share of energy received from RES will be 91%.

This shows that saved energy resource is the cheapest “resource”, and investments in saving are more feasible than those needed to produce additional electricity and heat to meet the needs of the population and economy as a whole. The electricity will be produced by all RES technologies that will be available in Ukraine until 2050, since they rapidly develop and become cheaper.

Read alsoOver 1,200 Ukrainian households install solar power systems since year-start The most promising among them are wind and solar energy technologies, and bioenergy technologies can become leaders in heat generation. According to the Revolutionary Scenario, the share of wind energy in the structure of the electricity production can reach 45%, solar – 36%, and the share of biomass and waste in the structure of the thermal energy production can reach up to 73%.

At the same time, political will to implement such the energy transition in Ukraine is not observed so far. As Oleksii Ryabchin, Member of the Parliament of Ukraine mentioned during the press-conference: “Only with strong commitments to reduce emissions, increase energy efficiency and decrease fossil fuels dependency from the Ukrainian government on the one side, and attracting investments and having access to a green finance on another, this scenario will have a chance for implementation. But we need this scenario to be implemented. Such energy development pattern will allow decentralization of the Ukrainian energy sector, what is highly needed from democracy perspective. And energy cooperatives and households will play crucial role here. In addition just transition can be ensured for workers of coal and nuclear industries until 2050.”

Read alsoGroysman: Ukraine to give up coal imports"Ukraine has paid an enormous price for past lack of efforts to reduce energy dependency and continues to pay the price. The solution for the energy security of Ukraine, and, I think, globally, lies in 2 actions: one - the reduction of energy consumption through energy efficiency measures and two - in gradual transition to domestic renewable energy sources. And this is exactly what is needed for fighting global climate change and this is exactly what is needed for Ukraine to reach energy independence," added Iryna Stavchuk, head of local environmental group "Ecoaction".

The implementation of the Revolutionary scenario will result in radical reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which in 2050 might amount only to 10% of the 1990 level (or 85 mln t СО2-equivalent), which corresponds to required efforts at the global level to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement.

Read alsoUkraine sees boost in renewable energy projectsAccording to the report, the most ambitious energy and environmental targets for final consumption by 2050 will have significant benefits for both the economy and society as a whole. The implementation of the "energy transition" will significantly increase Ukraine’s energy independence and energy efficiency in all sectors of the economy, reduce the risk of repeated nuclear accidents and decrease greenhouse gas emissions.

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